The Progress Problem

Iconoclast: (noun) a person who attacks cherished beliefs, traditional institutions, etc., as being based on error or superstition.


There was a time in my youth when I prided myself on my iconoclastic identity. 

Later, there came a time when I took that young iconoclast out behind the shed...

He hasn't been heard from since.

Time has taught me that, despite my desire to change the tenants of time-tested institution, truth is truth.  That is not to say that truth should not be challenged.  It most certainly must be.  But, truth being truth, passes the test of time...every time it is tested.

How's that for dizzying logic?  And, what in the Sam Hill does any of this have to do with sports?

Two words: Chip Kelly.

The former Duck turned Igle Head Coach is an iconoclast. 

And, last night, former Igle now Chief Head Coach, Andy Reid, was The Truth.

I had held out hope that Kelly's up-tempo, high energy and extremely entertaining offensive philosophy would at the very least find some fundamental gap in NFL game planning as we know it.  Alas, I am convinced that is not the case.

This is not to say that Kelly will go the way of Spurior or Saban.  I think that, if his ego is pliable enough to concede the fact that truth is truth for a reason, he can learn to be a good (if not great) NFL head coach.

OK Mr. Smarty Pants - what the heck is this truth you speak of.

Here it is:  Statistics can not change the outcome of an NFL game.

Chip Kelly, based on his success at the collegiate level, believes that they can.  He believes that if he runs his offense fast enough, enough times,  eventually (statistically speaking) he can find something in opponents' defenses that he can exploit.

He cannot.

One of my professors in college, put it like this.  Mathematically, I can convince you that if I shoot a bullet at your car, it will never make contact.  He pointed out that in the abstract analysis of the way the bullet might travel, it can be argued that there must always be a "halfway point".  When you fire the gun, a point A and point B are created and there is a halfway point between the two.  Once the bullet reaches that halfway point, there is a new point A and point B and therefore a new halfway point.  And, so the logic goes, that there must always be a new halfway point....

Until I have a bullet hole in my car and want to punch him and myself for even entertaining the idea that there wouldn't be. 

Experience tells me that if you shoot a gun, the bullet will eventually make contact with something and typically to devastating effect.  Experience also tells me that you can't change the NFL through statistical analysis.  Not since the invention of the forward pass anyway.

Push back will come from sports fans that point to Billy Beane, and this is a valid point.  Even though he has not won a ring with his philosophy, I believe that Mr. Beane, aided by an army of underground stat geeks, have fundamentally changed how we evaluate baseball success, thusly changing the beautiful game forever.

Wait, didn't you say earlier that truth is truth?  Yes, I also said it must be tested in order to prove it to indeed be truth.  Moneyball demonstrates that the methodology inherent in the grand old system of measuring baseball success could very well be flawed.

Could. I hearken back to Beane's ringless finger..

Bottom line:  Baseball is a statistical game.  Bill Miller and company taught Billy Beane that baseball's "better mousetrap" was all in the numbers. 

Chip Kelly's problem is that football is not a game of statistics.  Each season for each NFL team is a military-esque campaign divided into 16 battles.  Each battle's outcome effects the next battle.  These battles and the eventual campaign are won with tactical strategy, logistics, good training and the ability to survive inevitable attrition.

These battles are fought in the trenches where men attempt to bend the will of their opponent with brute force.  You can't do that with a calculator.

Could this be false and upon me proved? 

Time will tell.  In the meantime, let me repeat:

Chip Kelly is an Iconoclast.

Andy Reid is the Truth.

The Last Word

There are power in words. 

Whether spoken or left unsaid, written or carved in stone, words can bring the blessings and richness of joyful life or the bone-crushing destruction of a cursed opportunity.

I live in a sports town that has adopted the latter. 

My Carolina Panthers lost another close NFL contest this week.  This time it was on the road to the seemingly listless Buffalo Bills and the final score was 24 to 23.  If you follow the Panthers, you'll notice that I left out several words in the reporting of that defeat.

Here's how most are reporting it in the Carolinas on this overcast Monday morning.

The Panthers found a way to lose another close one in the last seconds in a game that they should have won.  Talented third year Quarterback Cam Newton can't close the deal in the forth quarter and Head Coach Ron Rivera is snake bitten when it comes to games decided by a touchdown or less.  At this point, unless we have a 3 score lead with under 10 minutes to play in the game, we are going to find a way to lose.

I left out the four-letter words that most are utilizing to drive home their argument when discussing the Panthers around the water cooler...but you get the point.  Every fan base has been here.   That moment when you realize that your team has become this year's Bad News Bears...only these guys get paid a lot of money and actually try to win games.  No one will argue against that last point.  These guys actually try REALLY hard to succeed, and short of some O-line depth and bona-fide defensive secondary players, they are talented enough to win.  Certainly, they have enough pieces in place to beat the Fighting EJ Manuel's.

But there we were again.  Staring down the barrel of a last second loss again.  Knowing that there was no way it could happen again.  Expecting the inevitable numbness of watching the other team celebrate their ability to turn the improbable into certainty...again.

So what should Carolina do?  More specifically, what should Ron Rivera do?  Most people that I have spoken with in the twenty hours since the final whistle believe his best strategy would be to start packing his bags.  Maybe they are right.  Certainly, his ability to stick around for much longer feels improbable.  Good team, bad results, new GM, preseason owner ultimatum, 10 blown 4th quarter leads in 3 years.  Sounds rather damning to me. 

If you choose to focus on those words. 

My namesake is Casey Stengel.  I grew up in a minor league locker room with Grady Little as a mentor.  I am a coach at heart, and I can tell you that there are times where you look around and think, "It's over".  Whenever, I feel that way I am reminded of the power of words.

I am not talking about platitudes.  Platitudes are for self help gurus.  I'm talking about words.  Sincere, simple, raw, unwavering words.  There are countless examples from the locker rooms of days gone by.  One only has to look back to a few words delivered last year by Chuck Pagano in the Colts locker room. Or, go a few years deeper in the word vault and pull out Coach V or Knute Rockne.  I grew up in Durham, NC and during my time there from 1983-1993 there was an up and coming coach for a private college for brainiacs who had a way of using words to dictate to his players that they could move mountains.  Big mountains.  I think a couple of his teams actually could have redrawn the Appalachian trail map had they so desired.

Some will point out that the current Coach of the Panthers has said "all the right things" so far.  And, that by all accounts he has his team's buy-in.  And, that's lovely...if you want to run for public office.  Not if you want to get off of the proverbial "hot seat" as a NFL coach.

Coach Rivera has one more shot.  If he makes that shot, he'll have one more after that...and so on.  He knows it.  His players know it.

Not that he would want to hear my advice, but if I could have Coach's ear for a few minutes before the Panthers take the field against the equally down-and-out NY Giants next Sunday, my advice would be this:

Sit everyone down.  Get eye level.  Speak to the mountain.  Everyone knows that this is it.  This is that "last chance".  Put it out there.  Use simple, real, raw words.  I don't know Ron Rivera, but if all accounts are true, he would do this in a humble, gracious and indelibly endearing tone.

I would imagine he already plans to use these words at some point this week. 

My last bit of advice, would be to steal a chapter from the aforementioned up-and-coming turned legendary coach at that brainiac college in Durham. 

Stand up, smile, and remind the players why they play this game.  Guys, at it's worst, this game is still supposed to be fun.  Forget hot seats, and records and the feeling that this can't keep happening.  We know what the problem is and we will not, despite our circumstances, choose to dwell on that.  Instead, go out and have fun.  Play like you did when you laced up your first pair of real football cleats. 

Play like tomorrow doesn't matter.  Play like it's the last time you'll ever see a football field.

Win or lose.  Choose to have a blast between the lines. 

I'll take my chances with a team who wants to do that.

That would be my last word...

Here's hoping it isn't Coach Rivera's.